RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.102546
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)	0.000194
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.05831
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	-0.008912
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023)	0.00018
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023)	0.001817
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.046765
Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023)	0.000135
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	0.102213
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023)	0.00631
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?	0.000325
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	-0.009967
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.016053
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?	0.000001
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	-0.00408
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	-0.02108
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?	-0.000445
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	0.023776
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	-0.026613
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.021837

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