Increasing based on recent reporting from NYT, this sounds almost imminent
1.260809
Relative Brier Score
118
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 14 | 38 | 407 | 293 | 1393 |
| Comments | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 91 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 25 | 61 | 44 | 213 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 77 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
93%
(+16%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
7%
(-16%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-2%)
Yes
91%
(+2%)
No
Still ~$0.5 T behind #1 Apple. I'm going to continue to hover slightly below the crowd on this one.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(+1%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
94%
(-1%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
Increasing slightly due to recent escalations in the region
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
77%
(+32%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
23%
(-32%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
Updating with the 6-month version of this Q
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(+32%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
30%
(-32%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing due to recent events
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I wonder if, having taken out the Hezbollah leader and the pager attack without a full ground invasion, Israel will think that's necessary. They've done a lot already without one, so I don't think this is quite as high as the crowd for me.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirming previous forecast. Time horizon is long enough that I don't want to go down to 0 yet.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(+1%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Passage of time
Files
Increasing based on recent reporting from NYT, this sounds almost imminent