Confirming previous forecast
1.260809
Relative Brier Score
118
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 35 | 401 | 340 | 1440 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 398 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 23 | 59 | 46 | 215 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 78 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirming previous forecast, no change
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Confirming previous forecast, not quite close enough to go all the way to zero yet.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
With winter coming and this Q ending soon I'm staying where I am, I don't think even with the North Korean troops there will be a push on a major city before the end of the year. If there's any motion based on Trump's rhetoric I think it'll happen after January.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(+1%)
Moldova
2%
(+1%)
Armenia
4%
(+1%)
Georgia
2%
(+1%)
Kazakhstan
Bumping up very slightly after the US election and Trump saying he wants to end the war in Ukraine. Will monitor how this goes over the early part of next year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-12%)
Yes
100%
(+12%)
No
Zeroing out with two weeks to go. I really don't see this happening, p < 0.005.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Confirming previous forecast. This may change when Trump gets into office in January but for now I think it's still a big enough lift that it's below 0.005.