While non-zero (see Wagner/Prigozhin "rebellion" in June 2023), Putin has consolidated power as much or more than any other world leader, has insulated himself from criticism, and is aggressive in killing/jailing rivals.
0.010324
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Pressure to stand up to Israel, combined with potential chaos of upcoming US election, plus de facto sanctions by US that have frozen funds. No parties have impetus to change current status quo, but Iran could feel internal political pressure to withdraw amidst Middle East volatility.
Why might you be wrong?
Iran gains/loses nothing with current status-quo of not allowing inspectors and not feeling the weight of full sanctions; viewed in this manner, chance may be quite close to zero.