Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 11:09PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 11:09PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 71% | 15% | +56% | -60% |
| No | 29% | 85% | -56% | +60% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Sep 27, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 16% | 33% | -17% | -8% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 30% | 64% | -34% | +10% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 54% | 3% | +51% | -2% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Sep 27, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 23% | -13% | -5% |
| No | 90% | 77% | +13% | +5% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Nov 24, 2024 | 1% | +28% | +0% |
| No | 71% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Nov 24, 2024 | 99% | -28% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Jan 24, 2025 | 5% | +25% | -2% |
| No | 70% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Jan 24, 2025 | 95% | -25% | +2% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Nov 24, 2024 | 0% | +35% | +0% |
| No | 65% | Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Nov 24, 2024 | 100% | -35% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 1% | +14% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 99% | -14% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | Oct 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2025 | Jan 24, 2025 | 21% | +9% | -11% |
| No | 70% | Oct 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2025 | Jan 24, 2025 | 79% | -9% | +11% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 37% | +13% | +0% |
| No | 50% | 63% | -13% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 5% | +12% | -1% |
| No | 83% | 95% | -12% | +1% |