2.287887
Relative Brier Score
311
Forecasts
21
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 32 | 362 | 311 | 851 |
Comments | 0 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 213 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 32 | 83 | 61 | 185 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 5 | 33 | 21 | 129 |
Definitions |
Why do you think you're right?
I'm updating based on the announcement of troops deployed to operate THAAD missile batteries earlier this month (https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/13/politics/israel-iran-antimissile-system-us-troops/index.html. I would expect that these systems will be a target, and while U.S. forces are probably not the desired target as much as the systems themselves, there is a potential for U.S. casualties. F-16s have been deployed to CENTOM AOR, but I presume they are in a friendly Arab country, I presume Qatar (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241025-us-deploys-f-16-jets-to-middle-east-amid-rising-tensions-over-potential-israel-strike-on-iran/)
Why might you be wrong?
Minor update
I'm closely following this as an export compliance specialist; having worked both on enforcement and corporate compliance. I'll comment further when I have more time (this is a very complex problem) but I feel as though the problem from a regulatory standpoint is multifaceted. The government is highly reliant on industry (and probably more importantly and often overlooked, academia) to interpret export regulations and self-regulate the development of AI. BIS has been playing catch-up for the past three or four years, when it was probably already at least half a decade behind and has been relying on list-based end user controls to impose licensing requirements and enforce them rather than having a comprehensive and holistic approach to AI and its derivative technologies.