168th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:
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2.287887

Relative Brier Score

311

Forecasts

21

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 32 362 311 851
Comments 0 2 25 15 213
Questions Forecasted 0 32 83 61 185
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 5 33 21 129
 Definitions
New Badge
gcahlik
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Comment

I'm closely following this as an export compliance specialist; having worked both on enforcement and corporate compliance.    I'll comment further when I have more time (this is a very complex problem) but I feel as though the problem from a regulatory standpoint is multifaceted.  The government is highly reliant on industry (and probably more importantly and often overlooked, academia) to interpret export regulations and self-regulate the development of AI.  BIS has been playing catch-up for the past three or four years, when it was probably already at least half a decade behind and has been relying on list-based end user controls to impose licensing requirements and enforce them rather than having a comprehensive and holistic approach to AI and its derivative technologies. 

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New Prediction
gcahlik
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
15% (0%)
Togo
25% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
gcahlik
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
gcahlik
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (+14%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
85% (-14%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

I'm updating based on the announcement of troops deployed to operate THAAD missile batteries earlier this month (https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/13/politics/israel-iran-antimissile-system-us-troops/index.html.  I would expect that these systems will be a target, and while U.S. forces are probably not the desired target as much as the systems themselves, there is a potential for U.S. casualties. F-16s have been deployed to CENTOM AOR, but I presume they are in a friendly Arab country, I presume Qatar (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241025-us-deploys-f-16-jets-to-middle-east-amid-rising-tensions-over-potential-israel-strike-on-iran/)

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Why might you be wrong?

 

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
gcahlik
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
gcahlik
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Yes
99% (+1%)
No

Minor update

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New Prediction
gcahlik
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
0% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
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