gcahlik

Minor update; I think since Israel is in a de facto state of war with Hezbollah, this is more or less just a matter of formality.  I'm trending lower than the group because I am not sure how it would serve Israel to make a formal declaration.

updating due to passage of time

I think China will continue to make incursions into Africa.  As the US and European allies are less inclined to engage in Africa, distracted by issues in the near frontier, I think it's unlikely that China will be opposed and it only makes sense as it shores up military support for economic control of countries it has invested into.

Major downgrade given the incursion into Kursk oblast.  Dwindling supplies of artillery hardware is likely going to continue to be a problem for Russia

Minor downgrade given current market conditions.