Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 23, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 | Dec 23, 2024 | 22% | -12% | +16% |
| No | 90% | Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 | Dec 23, 2024 | 78% | +12% | -16% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 20% | 4% | +16% | -25% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 80% | 94% | -14% | +24% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 11:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 21, 2024 11:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 9% | +16% | -10% |
| No | 75% | 91% | -16% | +10% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:54AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:54AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +2% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 02:38AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 02:38AM UTC
(30 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 0% | 1% | -1% | -19% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 5% | 7% | -2% | -13% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 30% | 27% | +3% | +7% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 40% | 37% | +3% | +17% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 25% | 27% | -2% | +7% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:36AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:36AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 13% | +12% | +5% |
| No | 75% | Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 | Jan 28, 2025 | 87% | -12% | -5% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 7% | +3% | -5% |
| No | 90% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 93% | -3% | +5% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 0% | 7% | -7% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 8% | +17% | -5% |
| No | 75% | 92% | -17% | +5% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 34% | -24% | +14% |
| No | 90% | 66% | +24% | -14% |