Forecasted Questions
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 25% | +10% | -3% |
| No | 65% | 75% | -10% | +3% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 6% | -1% | -3% |
| No | 95% | 94% | +1% | +3% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 3% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 95% | Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 97% | -2% | +1% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 3% | 9% | -6% | -4% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 0% | 7% | -7% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +1% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 5% | +5% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 95% | -5% | +2% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |