Unlikely until 2027, given Russia-Ukraine.
1.152264
Relative Brier Score
387
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 387 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 80 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 10, 2024 05:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 10, 2024 to Apr 10, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 10, 2024 to Apr 10, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Time update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Time update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-20%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Too strong a hold over Russia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Moldova
25%
Armenia
5%
Georgia
0%
Kazakhstan
Not Kazakhstan. Armenia most likely after failed coup.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
All NATO Countries. Not a chance.
Files
Update