140th
Accuracy Rank

daddyxi

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Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 13 80 25 617
Comments 0 4 8 5 202
Questions Forecasted 0 13 47 21 120
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 1 60
 Definitions
New Prediction
daddyxi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 9%
50%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
50%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?

The break down of the centre in German politics and increased economic hardship due to Chinese competition for German jobs. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Inciting incident such as Russian sabotage having greater than expected impact and galvanising society. 

Files
New Prediction
daddyxi
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
0% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
daddyxi
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
daddyxi
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The big issue is Israeli government power dynamics and who would speak for HAMAS given the impact on leadership https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/08/real-schism-israel-hamas-ceasefire-talks-about-who-decides-gazas-future

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Israeli politics 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
daddyxi
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
40% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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