Confirmed previous forecast
4.675959
Relative Brier Score
163
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 13 | 80 | 25 | 617 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 313 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 13 | 47 | 21 | 120 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-43%)
Yes
98%
(+43%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The big issue is Israeli government power dynamics and who would speak for HAMAS given the impact on leadership https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/08/real-schism-israel-hamas-ceasefire-talks-about-who-decides-gazas-future
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israeli politics
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
40%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The break down of the centre in German politics and increased economic hardship due to Chinese competition for German jobs.
Why might you be wrong?
Inciting incident such as Russian sabotage having greater than expected impact and galvanising society.