RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 09:13PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	16%	-7%	+5%
No	91%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	84%	+7%	-5%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	6%	+0%	-1%
No	94%	94%	+0%	+1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 07:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	99%	-1%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:36PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:41PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

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