I think the reasons why Iran attacks are: an attack on members of its political and military force.
2.493594
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 45 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 32 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 10:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
98%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
The Iranian government needs a strong economy to withstand possible economic sanctions from the US and its allies.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
International pressure and internal pressure must be very strong for Nicolás Maduro to accept his defeat, while it is very likely that he will continue to be president of Venezuela.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+97%)
Less than or equal to 49
3%
(-3%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(-80%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(-14%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
There were no outbreaks of violence by gangs
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
1%
No
Two elements play in favor of Nicolás Maduro: his belief system about democracy (a regime that, according to him, does everything right) and his desire to maintain his political strength over the economic situation that Venezuela is suffering.
Files
The number of AI patents generated by China is influencing Microsoft Research Asia's decision to relocate