Putin values Russian security, political survival and power projection globally. Every step he takes is carefully calculated to enhance his position both domestically and abroad.
3.566384
Relative Brier Score
20
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 47 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
The number of AI patents generated by China is influencing Microsoft Research Asia's decision to relocate
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
I think the reasons why Iran attacks are: an attack on members of its political and military force.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 10:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
98%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
The Iranian government needs a strong economy to withstand possible economic sanctions from the US and its allies.
Files
Decision-making regarding Taiwan does not fall on a single actor but on economic and political power groups, so the decision to invade, attack or blockade Taiwan could happen if the interests of each group can converge.