I think the reasons why Iran attacks are: an attack on members of its political and military force.
-0.054153
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | 45 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 32 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Definitions |
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This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
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This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 10:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
98%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
The Iranian government needs a strong economy to withstand possible economic sanctions from the US and its allies.
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Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
International pressure and internal pressure must be very strong for Nicolás Maduro to accept his defeat, while it is very likely that he will continue to be president of Venezuela.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+97%)
Less than or equal to 49
3%
(-3%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(-80%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(-14%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
There were no outbreaks of violence by gangs
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Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
1%
No
Two elements play in favor of Nicolás Maduro: his belief system about democracy (a regime that, according to him, does everything right) and his desire to maintain his political strength over the economic situation that Venezuela is suffering.
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The number of AI patents generated by China is influencing Microsoft Research Asia's decision to relocate