Putin values Russian security, political survival and power projection globally. Every step he takes is carefully calculated to enhance his position both domestically and abroad.
-0.054153
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 47 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
The number of AI patents generated by China is influencing Microsoft Research Asia's decision to relocate
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
I think the reasons why Iran attacks are: an attack on members of its political and military force.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 10:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
98%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025
The Iranian government needs a strong economy to withstand possible economic sanctions from the US and its allies.
Files
Decision-making regarding Taiwan does not fall on a single actor but on economic and political power groups, so the decision to invade, attack or blockade Taiwan could happen if the interests of each group can converge.