There are a lot of great arguments against it happening in comments below. I think main are no signs of preparation and not much NK may gain currently from it. Also I buy into argument that NK due to cooperation with Russia may feel a bit safer now on international stage. Another point that I think reduces possibility is Trump win. Still remember that meeting between Trump and Kim that I forecasted will not happen. I do not think Kim will want to disrupt first months of Trump in the office with tensions that probably would not give him much and may only alienate world leader that once met with him when he was treated as pariah.
-0.032788
Relative Brier Score
270
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 10 | 41 | 332 | 270 | 942 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 10 | 17 | 46 | 31 | 82 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 28 | 19 | 100 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
92%
No
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Nvidia inches higher than Apple prior to Quarterly rsults. Last quarter good financial results trigerred selloff for being not good enough, even if repeted this time there is still plenty of time till resolution date.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(+17%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
75%
(-17%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
Increasing based on coma rumours. Even if not confirmed may signal some health issues or preparation for transition of power. there are some news circulating that his son was choosen as new supreame leader.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(+10%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
85%
(-10%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
Incresing due to Trump election and his potential picks for Gov roles which point to rather hawkish stance against Iran .From the other side Trump usually underlines how he is avoidig wars. So I believe he will be hard on Iran but below war. Also for Irans best interest it is best to avoid direct confrontation with US.
One wildcard is Natanyahu stance who may feel emboldened to strike Iran, howaver even direct hit on Iran's oil or nuclear facilities may not resolve question as yes due to resolution criteria.
In past years Iran was directly targeting Israel with missles but it did not trigger war declaration by neither side.
Files