There are a lot of great arguments against it happening in comments below. I think main are no signs of preparation and not much NK may gain currently from it. Also I buy into argument that NK due to cooperation with Russia may feel a bit safer now on international stage. Another point that I think reduces possibility is Trump win. Still remember that meeting between Trump and Kim that I forecasted will not happen. I do not think Kim will want to disrupt first months of Trump in the office with tensions that probably would not give him much and may only alienate world leader that once met with him when he was treated as pariah.
-0.38335
Relative Brier Score
141
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 42 | 332 | 271 | 943 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 17 | 46 | 31 | 82 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 27 | 20 | 101 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
92%
No
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Nvidia inches higher than Apple prior to Quarterly rsults. Last quarter good financial results trigerred selloff for being not good enough, even if repeted this time there is still plenty of time till resolution date.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(+17%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
75%
(-17%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
Increasing based on coma rumours. Even if not confirmed may signal some health issues or preparation for transition of power. there are some news circulating that his son was choosen as new supreame leader.
Files
reucing based on his coma being probably just rumours.