Time.
0.83847
Relative Brier Score
618
Forecasts
80
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 14 | 273 | 235 | 618 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 60 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 12 | 38 | 28 | 58 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 20 | 17 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-5%)
Yes
85%
(+5%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Now news to change my forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
1%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
99%
(+4%)
More than or equal to 28%
Nothing points otherwise.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-5%)
Yes
80%
(+5%)
No
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-5%)
Yes
80%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time and no updates.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Updates come all together in the last minute.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
The chances are very low, time is running out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55%
(+25%)
Yes
Nov 6, 2024 to Nov 6, 2025
45%
(-25%)
No
Nov 6, 2024 to Nov 6, 2025
Trump won the USA elections. This might be a possibility within the next year.
Files
Leading and increasing for the last 30 days.
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