I think being the world's most valuable company is a big statement, I’ll start close to the crowd.
0.83847
Relative Brier Score
608
Forecasts
80
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 19 | 281 | 225 | 608 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 16 | 41 | 28 | 58 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 23 | 17 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Staying at zero. No news to point otherwise.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4%
(-1%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Going with the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Estonia
0%
(-1%)
Latvia
0%
(-1%)
Lithuania
Lack of news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
5%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
95%
(+5%)
More than or equal to 28%
Updating based on the comment from @404_NOT_FOUND
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-2%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
4%
(-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Israel still bombing Gaza.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/18/israel-gaza-airstrikes-hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-death
Files
Increasing based on the news shared by @cmeinel