Confirmed previous forecast
0.079903
Relative Brier Score
263
Forecasts
17
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 24 | 258 | 249 | 895 |
| Comments | 7 | 19 | 185 | 182 | 245 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 22 | 47 | 43 | 94 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 89 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(+10%)
U.S. Entity
45%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing on the U.S. Entity based on the update from @PeterStamp.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
Less than $350 million
36%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
10%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
5%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
1%
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
Based on the current total of more than 160 M, I think the first bin is the most likely, however, the second bin could also have a chance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
More funding than the one observed in 2025.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
94%
(+4%)
Less than $1 billion
5%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Based on the current numbers.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something extraordinary happens in 2026.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-19%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
65%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
33%
(+18%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
1%
(+1%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
Giving more to the third bin. I think it will be in between second and third bin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
People keep pursing PhDs at the same rate as in the past.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time.
Why might you be wrong?
N/A