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PeterStamp

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My name is Peter Stamp. I´m a 1971 born german financial advisor and insurance broker.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 34 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:27PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 97% 97%
No 3% 3%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 75 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:27PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 4% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 2% 6%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:28PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 3% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 1% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 1% 1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:28PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 0%
No 99% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 100%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 40 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:28PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 35% 36%
No 65% 64%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:31PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 1%
No 99% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 99%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:31PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 1% 1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive 14% 13%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 44% 50%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 38% 33%
More than or equal to 80 3% 2%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 9% 1% 1%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 11% 19%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 71% 72%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 16% 8%
More than or equal to 40% 1% 0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 40% 32%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 55% 65%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 5% 3%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Feb 19, 2025 4%
No 95% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Feb 19, 2025 96%
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