RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	7%	9%	-2%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	4%	7%	-3%	-1%

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:37PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	19%	22%	-3%	-8%
More than or equal to 28%	81%	77%	+4%	+8%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	41%	+9%	-2%
No	50%	59%	-9%	+2%

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:43PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	44%	-9%	-1%
No	65%	56%	+9%	+1%

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 11:45AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	16%	-1%	+2%
No	85%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	84%	+1%	-2%

PeterStamp