Time decay
-0.043336
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
183
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 44 | 175 | 118 | 183 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 26 | 49 | 32 | 52 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Russian Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Open RAN,
Africa,
Economic Debt
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
5%
(-5%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
15%
(-5%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
15%
(-5%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
65%
(+15%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Putin clearly indicates he is not interested in an immediate ceasefire
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-12%)
Yes
80%
(+12%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Putin clearly indicates he is not interested in an immediate ceasefire
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 59
15%
(+4%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
42%
(+6%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
32%
(-6%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
9%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Weekly update
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
94%
(+1%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
2%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-10%)
Yes
75%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
AAPL 69%
NVDA 25%
MSFT 6%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 24, 2025 to Sep 24, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Mar 24, 2025 to Sep 24, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
AAPL 81%
NVDA 15%
MSFT 4%
Why might you be wrong?