Confirmed previous forecast
-0.29354
Relative Brier Score
28
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Adjusting for passage of time and changes on the ground.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
10%
(0%)
Georgia
5%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Reduced for:
Moldova - lower chances of a good starting position
Georgia - no need to invade with the puppet government in place.
Kazakhstan - passage of time/lack of Russian military resources