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New Prediction
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
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Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Adjusting for passage of time and changes on the ground.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
10%
(0%)
Georgia
5%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-30%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
The Russian forces in the north ended up incapable of making more than symbolic gains.
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