Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?
Started
Mar 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted international condemnation, the domestic consequences for Putin are unclear (Bloomberg). The prospect of a prolonged war, mounting casualties, and devastating economic sanctions will test the depth of his support by the Russian public (CNBC, PBS).
Outcome will be determined based on data reported by the Levada Center. Bins will be determined by the month of the approval rating. For example, if the May data (displayed as 05.2022 on the site) shows a 47% percent approval rating, the question will resolve on May 2022, even if the 05.2022 data is released in June.
Question clarification
Issued on 05/23/22 09:34pm
A technical error had prevented this question from being scored. This issue has now been resolved, and this question will be scored each month until either the approval rating drops below 50% or the question closes.
A technical error had prevented this question from being scored. This issue has now been resolved, and this question will be scored each month until either the approval rating drops below 50% or the question closes.
Resolution Notes
Vladimir Putin's lowest approval rating from March 2022 to March 2023 was 77%.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.30% | |
| No | 98.70% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 175 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1073 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |