RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 25 · 40

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 29 · 40

25%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 23 · 33

27%

Chance

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 46 · 76

24%

Chance

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Closing Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 32 · 55

37%

Chance

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 30 · 48

7%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 39 · 70

12%

Chance

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 28 · 53

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 18 · 37

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 46 · 96

14%

Chance

Status

Season

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How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

25%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

27%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

24%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

37%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

7%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

12%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

14%

Status

Season

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Topics

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25%

27%

24%

37%

7%

12%

14%