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Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa
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Forecasted Questions
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Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 07:41PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 51% 24%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 49% 43%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 2% 1%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 1% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 08:47PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 0% 2%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 22% 4%
More than or equal to 28% 78% 94%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 41% 35%
No 59% 65%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 4% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 4% 4%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 1% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 1% 1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 20% 7%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 1% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 16% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 23%
No 84% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 77%
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