RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:13AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	3%	+5%	-2%
No	92%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	97%	-5%	+2%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:13AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	16%	-9%	+2%
No	93%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	84%	+9%	-2%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 07:41PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	51%	33%	+18%	+1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	49%	40%	+9%	+2%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	2%	2%	+1%	0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:47PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	22%	22%	+0%	+1%
More than or equal to 28%	78%	77%	+1%	-1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	41%	41%	+0%	+0%
No	59%	59%	+0%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	4%	3%	+1%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa

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