RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	0%	+2%	+0%
No	98%	100%	-2%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	21%	9%	+12%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	8%	6%	+2%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	7%	-7%	-4%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	93%	+7%	+4%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	1%	-1%	+1%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	99%	+1%	-1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	2%	+15%	+1%
No	83%	98%	-15%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:02AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	36%	+29%	-1%
No	35%	64%	-29%	+1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:02AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	4%	0%	+4%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	35%	0%	+35%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	6%	1%	+5%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	55%	99%	-44%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:02AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	1%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	99%	-3%	+0%

Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa

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