SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 
157th
Accuracy Rank

Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa
About:
Show more

1.956396

Relative Brier Score

94

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 12 49 352 271 792
Comments 0 0 3 3 61
Questions Forecasted 12 38 74 58 146
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 4 8 6 25
 Definitions
New Prediction
Aadebamiwa77
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
The forecast still stands because nothing has changed in the region. 
Files
New Prediction
Aadebamiwa77
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
84% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025

The previous forecast still stands because of the crowd and the background information. 

Files
New Prediction
Aadebamiwa77
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
1% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
The forecast still remains the same because things have not changed in that region since the question was posted. 
Files
New Prediction
Aadebamiwa77
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
96% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

I am sticking with the previous forecast because things have not changed in that region since the last time. 

Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
Aadebamiwa77
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo

Nothing has really changed in the region other than the normal dictatorial and socialistic moves by the Venezuelan president, so I will stick to my previous forecast.  


https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-election-maduro-options-explainer-0c6cb224bd345dd71977fd756929111d#:~:text=The%20opposition%20says%20Gonz%C3%A1lez%20trounced

Files
New Prediction
Aadebamiwa77
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
22%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
78%
More than or equal to 28%

I am joining the crowd and using the information on WSTS’ Historical Billings Report to forecast on this topic.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username