My previous forecast still stands because Putin has become a god-like figure in Russia. Most citizens, besides the opposition, view Putin as their shield against the Western encroachment.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/07/02/views-of-russia-and-putin-july-24/#:~:text=In%20some%20places,%20views%20of%20Russia%20and
I am sticking with the previous forecast because things have not changed in that region since the last time.