Confirmed previous forecast
5.755309
Relative Brier Score
246
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 21 | 313 | 295 | 816 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 282 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 21 | 60 | 58 | 146 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 26 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
35%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
6%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
55%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Yes
83%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files