RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 02:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	41%	-38%	-3%
No	97%	59%	+38%	+3%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 02:57AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	16%	+14%	+7%
No	70%	Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	84%	-14%	-7%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 04:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	60%	33%	+27%	+2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	30%	40%	-10%	+1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	3%	2%	+1%	+1%
Latvia	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
Lithuania	3%	1%	+2%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Kyiv	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Odesa	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 11:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	85%	44%	+41%	+1%
No	15%	56%	-41%	-1%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 12:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Oct 26, 2024	84%	+14%	+4%
No	2%	Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Oct 26, 2024	16%	-14%	-4%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 02:56PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025	Dec 26, 2024	5%	-2%	+0%
No	97%	Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025	Dec 26, 2024	95%	+2%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Oct 26, 2024	54%	-31%	+6%
No	77%	Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Oct 26, 2024	46%	+31%	-6%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Oct 26, 2024	0%	+12%	+0%
No	88%	Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Oct 26, 2024	100%	-12%	+0%

Captbullett

Brian Helip

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