Forecasted Questions
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 07:30PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 07:30PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 03:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 03:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 | Feb 1, 2025 | 21% | -6% | -2% |
| No | 85% | Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 | Feb 1, 2025 | 79% | +6% | +2% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 8% | 6% | +2% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 92% | 92% | +0% | -1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 5% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 95% | +5% | +1% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 04:19PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 04:19PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 15% | +45% | +4% |
| No | 40% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 85% | -45% | -4% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 04:19PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 04:19PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2026 | Feb 4, 2025 | 7% | +3% | +1% |
| No | 90% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2026 | Feb 4, 2025 | 93% | -3% | -1% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 65% | 20% | +45% | +5% |
| Bolivia | 30% | 23% | +7% | +1% |
| Ecuador | 15% | 12% | +3% | +0% |