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Brian Helip
About:

Good day,
computer science at Santa Monica College, Pi Theta Kappa international honor student,
IARPA data scientist projects CREATE and FOCUS counterfactual reasoning
Metaculus forecaster; // https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/150013/ //
Have a great day …
Sincerely,
captbullett
Brian H.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 05:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 05:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 Dec 11, 2024 1%
No 95% Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 Dec 11, 2024 99%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 05:53PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 10%
No 97% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 90%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 07:06PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 0%
No 100% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 100%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 07:11PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 34%
No 90% 66%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 21, 2024 05:54PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 8%
No 100% 92%
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