RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 11:23PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	20%	11%	+9%	+1%
Kenya	15%	9%	+6%	+0%
Ethiopia	20%	35%	-15%	-1%
Nigeria	5%	5%	+0%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	7%	1%	+6%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	20%	13%	+7%	+1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	53%	51%	+2%	-3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	17%	34%	-17%	+1%
More than or equal to 80	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	12%	19%	-7%	+0%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	79%	72%	+7%	-1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	8%	8%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	1%	-1%	+1%
No	100%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	99%	+1%	-1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:23PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025	Dec 11, 2024	7%	-2%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025	Dec 11, 2024	93%	+2%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:23PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	6%	9%	-3%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	5%	6%	-1%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025	Feb 11, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Captbullett

Brian Helip

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