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Brian Helip
About:

Good day,
computer science at Santa Monica College, Pi Theta Kappa international honor student,
IARPA data scientist projects CREATE and FOCUS counterfactual reasoning
Metaculus forecaster; // https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/150013/ //
Have a great day …
Sincerely,
captbullett
Brian H.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 30% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 3% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 3% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 13% 1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 04:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 04:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 6% 7%
Armenia 3% 2%
Georgia 3% 4%
Kazakhstan 3% 2%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 04:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 5%
No 97% 95%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 07:29PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 12% 21%
No 88% 79%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 07:30PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 07:30PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 6% 32%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 88% 65%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 6% 3%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 07:30PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 07:30PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 2%
No 95% 98%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 03:24PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 Feb 1, 2025 22%
No 85% Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025 Feb 1, 2025 78%
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