Forecasted Questions
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 8% | 4% | +4% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 92% | 94% | -2% | +1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 4% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 96% | +4% | +1% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 04:19PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 04:19PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2026 | Feb 4, 2025 | 12% | -2% | +7% |
| No | 90% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2026 | Feb 4, 2025 | 88% | +2% | -7% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 65% | 16% | +49% | +0% |
| Bolivia | 30% | 22% | +8% | +0% |
| Ecuador | 15% | 12% | +3% | -1% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025 | Dec 6, 2024 | 12% | -9% | -6% |
| No | 97% | Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025 | Dec 6, 2024 | 88% | +9% | +6% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 9% | -6% | -5% |
| No | 97% | 91% | +6% | +5% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Nov 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2025 | Dec 8, 2024 | 24% | -4% | -2% |
| No | 80% | Nov 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2025 | Dec 8, 2024 | 76% | +4% | +2% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 38% | -22% | -2% |
| No | 84% | 62% | +22% | +2% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 5% | -3% | -4% |
| No | 98% | 95% | +3% | +4% |