RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 05:36PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	Oct 6, 2024 to Apr 6, 2025	Nov 6, 2024	18%	+42%	-39%
No	40%	Oct 6, 2024 to Apr 6, 2025	Nov 6, 2024	82%	-42%	+39%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	11%	-1%	-7%
No	90%	89%	+1%	+7%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025	Nov 8, 2024	25%	-5%	-5%
No	80%	Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025	Nov 8, 2024	75%	+5%	+5%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 08:14PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	44%	-28%	+26%
No	84%	56%	+28%	-26%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	9%	+1%	-3%
No	90%	91%	-1%	+3%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	20%	10%	+10%	-7%
Kenya	15%	9%	+6%	-4%
Ethiopia	20%	36%	-16%	+17%
Nigeria	5%	4%	+1%	-2%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 05:07PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	7%	0%	+7%	-1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	20%	12%	+8%	-3%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	53%	55%	-2%	+4%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	17%	31%	-14%	+0%
More than or equal to 80	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	0%	+1%	-1%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	12%	19%	-7%	-1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	79%	72%	+7%	+1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	8%	8%	+0%	+1%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 01:19AM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Nov 11, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Nov 11, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 05:14PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Nov 11, 2024	6%	-1%	-4%
No	95%	Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025	Nov 11, 2024	94%	+1%	+4%

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Brian Helip

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