Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 02:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 02:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 41% | -38% | -3% |
No | 97% | 59% | +38% | +3% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 02:57AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 02:57AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 30% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 16% | +14% | +7% |
No | 70% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 84% | -14% | -7% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 04:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 04:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 60% | 33% | +27% | +2% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 40% | -10% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +1% |
Latvia | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Lithuania | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 04:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 11:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 11:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 85% | 44% | +41% | +1% |
No | 15% | 56% | -41% | -1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 12:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 12:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 98% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 86% | +12% | +5% |
No | 2% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 14% | -12% | -5% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 02:56PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 02:56PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 | Dec 26, 2024 | 5% | -2% | +0% |
No | 97% | Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 | Dec 26, 2024 | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 23% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 54% | -31% | +6% |
No | 77% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 46% | +31% | -6% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 12% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 0% | +12% | +0% |
No | 88% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 100% | -12% | +0% |