RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	32%	19%	+13%	+1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	60%	72%	-12%	-1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	8%	8%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	14%	12%	+2%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	51%	55%	-4%	+0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	34%	31%	+3%	+0%
More than or equal to 80	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	0%

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 09:15PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	14%	+4%	0%
No	82%	86%	-4%	0%

DimaKlenchin