Forecasted Questions
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 100% | 94% | +6% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 10:27PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 10:27PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27% | 36% | -9% | -1% |
| No | 73% | 64% | +9% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 10:43PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 10:43PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 20% | 24% | -4% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 42% | -12% | +7% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 10:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 10:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 10:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 10:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 10:45PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 10:45PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 06:59PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 06:59PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47% | 35% | +12% | +3% |
| No | 53% | 65% | -12% | -3% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 7% | +1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 22, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | 32% | +34% | +5% |
| No | 34% | 68% | -34% | -5% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 01:59PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 22, 2024 01:59PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 29% | +61% | +3% |
| No | 10% | 71% | -61% | -3% |