Time
-0.741728
Relative Brier Score
411
Forecasts
30
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 26 | 384 | 314 | 1428 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 107 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 24 | 54 | 40 | 121 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 92 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
2%
(0%)
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(-3%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
Very low, but just think Iranian policy will be to coordinate through proxies.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(0%)
Yes
58%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(+4%)
Moldova
3%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Successful Russian incursion on Presidential election and referendum.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(+12%)
Yes
75%
(-12%)
No
Up on latest rally
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Time.