Confirmed previous forecast
-0.741728
Relative Brier Score
411
Forecasts
30
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 12 | 361 | 317 | 1431 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 566 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 12 | 53 | 40 | 121 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | 92 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
2%
(0%)
Odesa
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(-3%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
Very low, but just think Iranian policy will be to coordinate through proxies.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(0%)
Yes
58%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Qatar leaving negotiations / time.