Ahead of Apple comfortably, still seems some volatility ahead
-0.308069
Relative Brier Score
527
Forecasts
36
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 14 | 25 | 370 | 331 | 1445 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 566 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 23 | 52 | 40 | 121 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 93 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
43%
(+18%)
Yes
57%
(-18%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+15%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025
80%
(-15%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025
Coma rumours are murky at best, still need to increase given age / base rates.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
4%
(-2%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
63%
(-4%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
30%
(+7%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
2%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 40%
Adjusting based on US election. Ukraine will come under sustained pressure for ceasefire, will be hard to hold out until then, unlikely Germany/Europe going to step up and fill American void.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-8%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
92%
(+8%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
US election update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Argentina
28%
(-2%)
Bolivia
9%
(-1%)
Ecuador
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-10%)
Yes
75%
(+10%)
No
Down on time and recent geo-political events
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Time