Confirmed previous forecast
-0.393581
Relative Brier Score
173
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 18 | 37 | 407 | 288 | 1402 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 107 |
| Questions Forecasted | 18 | 26 | 51 | 36 | 117 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 91 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Kharkiv
1%
(-1%)
Kyiv
2%
(0%)
Odesa
Small update for time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(-4%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
6%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Down for time and troubles verifying rumours, although they have been sustained what keeps me above crowd for now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(-2%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
93%
(+2%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Not providing the level of support to Hezbollah as potentially could be.
Files
Tweak for time / latest market outlook.