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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 50 | 368 | 344 | 1825 |
| Comments | 15 | 39 | 262 | 246 | 828 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 28 | 60 | 49 | 153 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 6 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 108 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-1%)
Yes
88%
(+1%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
(+9%)
Less than $1 billion
13%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
3%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(0%)
Yes
64%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
New Comment
New Comment
Can I please request clarification to if this remains unresolved based on current evidence? Thanks in advance
Files
Let's share some:
Here are some links
The Guardian (December 11, 2025): Reports at least 20 killed and nearly 200 injured amid escalating clashes and mass evacuations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/11/thailand-cambodia-border-evacuation
Al Jazeera (December 12, 2025): States at least 20 people killed across both countries (with nearly 200 wounded) since fighting resumed in early December.
Reuters (December 14, 2025): Notes at least 16 soldiers and 10 civilians dead (totaling at least 26) since the latest clashes began in early December.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Moldova
0%
(-1%)
Armenia
0%
(-1%)
Georgia
0%
(-1%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Very quick ceasefire in Ukraine which gives Putin encouragement to take Moldova.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
49%
(+2%)
Yes
51%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Slightly tweaking
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Basically on the fence and will likely be within the 347-353 range at this stage
Files
New Comment
Post mortem: We (and I) underweighted what a shift July was in this, basically rendering historic base rates useless. To a lesser extent Thai military F15 capability and overweighted US influence on what is a historic/ colonial dispute.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden announcement