Based on the number of crashes that have occurred - which appears to be 130, it doesn't seem to lead to a high number in California for just Jan-March.
7.074226
Relative Brier Score
129
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Less than 20
35%
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
20%
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
5%
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 50
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2023 06:36AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2022 to Jan 30, 2023
If anything, the approval rating appears to be climbing as opposed to dropping.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-80%)
Yes
Forecasts drastically changed. NO news reports or information has come out predicting any such thing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than 200 billion
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion
86%
(+56%)
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion
2%
(-53%)
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion
7%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 500 billion
According to current news
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-11%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
6%
(-9%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
2%
(-8%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
88%
(+28%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
Based on current outlook
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
No. I admit we've come far, and the likelihood of the cost being less than $100 is not far behind, however I do not believe it's in the era of next year. The next 5 years, yes. The next calendar year? No.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
58%
Yes
They dropped 5 million in investment into the company - which isn't a whole lot, but I feel the pressure is going to be greater in 2023 for airlines to use more sustainable fuels.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
No chance right now based on the influx if cases. There are talks about revisiting lockdowns in both India and China.