Double check
-0.035052
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
- long standing Microsoft presence in China
- still hiring
- still publishing
- little new articles on the topic since January
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- escalation Taiwan conflict
- outcry over unethical AI out of MSRA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
- technical feasibility to detect AI generated text
- currently no regulation to force such a label
- leaving some wiggle room due to „announcement“ uncertainty
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Some disinformation campaign during the US presidential elections might lead to public pressure, but before June 1st?
- Fact checking services might extend their offerings to include AI text generation.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Laplace approach
Files