SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

EndNote

About:
Show more

0.010118

Relative Brier Score

5

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 5 5 5
Comments 0 0 3 3 3
Questions Forecasted 0 0 3 3 3
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions


New Badge
EndNote
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
EndNote
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (0%)
Yes
Aug 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2025
75% (0%)
No
Aug 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
EndNote
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 19, 2024 03:17AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (0%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
75% (0%)
No
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
EndNote
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

According to Casey Newton, "CNET, where I worked from 2012 to 2013, has been using “automation technology” to publish at least 73 explainers on financial topics since November. While the site has refused to answer any questions, it’s hardly the first news organization to explore replacing human labor with robots: the Associated Press has been publishing automated stories since 2014."(https://www.platformer.news/can-radioactive-data-save-the-internet/ ) Moreover, in the same article, he points to an article that "was created not out for traditional editorial reasons but because it satisfies a popular Google search; CNET sells ads on the page, which it generated for pennies, and pockets the difference."

I think these two points stress the overarching reasons I think I might be right: until AI negatively affects advertising or other revenue, I doubt many platforms will feel the need to label any material as written or created by AI.   This is definitely the case regarding Facebook, which, at the risk of overgeneralizing the long list of ways that platform has proved a detriment to the progress toward a more informed society at large, I can at least say with much certainty that Facebook isn't going to do that anytime soon.  After all, disinformation has proven to be a reliable product within their business model. 

Most of the documentation provided for this question, in fact, points out that AI has already been used to ".... write advertising copy, press releases and even full novels at the “lower end of the book market” for the kind of formulaic genre fiction where you can say “give me a few paragraphs of description of this kind of scene” and have it do it and this will only increase as the models improve." (https://www.npr.org/2023/01/09/1147549845/gptzero-ai-chatgpt-edward-tian-plagiarism.



Files
Why might you be wrong?

I might be wrong because while it seems clear that most platforms are going to lean hard into using AI for all things profit-related, there seems to be an angle by which certain platforms can work to gain an advantage over others by advertising their trustworthiness via the use of  programs similar to "GPTZero, which ...can "quickly and efficiently" decipher whether a human or ChatGPT authored an essay." ((https://www.npr.org/2023/01/09/1147549845/gptzero-ai-chatgpt-edward-tian-plagiarism.) 

In other words, if the programs are inexpensive enough for the platform to use within a model that creates an edge for a platform over others through the framework of trustworthiness, then there's a small chance we might see such labels on at least one of the platforms. 


Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I could be right because it seems the U.S. and other nations that depend on REE, (in this case, dysprosium oxide (DO)) are in the process of developing broad spectrum policy initiatives aimed at refining the use of REE/DO by developing processes that allow for the decreased use of and increased efficiency of production that depend on REE/DO (Critical Materials Strategy, 2010; Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-based Growth, 2021).  Given China's steep market share of the mining and processing of REE/DO, other nations, including those like Japan, have worked successfully to reduce their reliance on a single producer of REE (https://chinapower.csis.org/china-rare-earths/).  It seems that despite the importance of REE/DO to the manufacture of many key technologies, the global manufacturing community will continue making in-roads into the mining and production of REE/DO such that the price will not see such a drastic increase in price.  


Files
Why might you be wrong?

"Beijing has demonstrated a willingness to leverage its weight in the global rare earth industry in pursuit of its political objectives..." (https://chinapower.csis.org/china-rare-earths/).  The significance of the above concept is that this manipulation of the market will remain a very effective method to advance China's policy elsewhere.  Despite the ability of other nations to successfully contend with such moves (Rare Earths and the U.S. Electronics Sector: Supply Chain Developments and Trends), this does not ensure market stability to the extent that spikes in the price of REE/DO don't occur in the future.   

Files
New Badge
EndNote
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
EndNote
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
EndNote
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jul 14, 2024 02:53AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
75%
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Several key nations seem to want to re-build the relationship  between Iran and Saudi Arabia, most significantly China and the United States.  Saudi Arabia, has a vested interest in a stronger relationship simply because it wants to protect its oil production.  If Ali Khamenei is Supreme Leader of Iran as this peace agreement is finalized, then all involved will want that power structure to remain intact rather than risking a new leader coming to power and halting talks and ramping up aggression against SU.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If those outside Iran and Saudi Arabia who are engaged in the talks (e.g. U.S. & China) can control the process to the extent those talks conclude successfully, then those same entities can control the power structure enough to install a  younger leader with an equal ability to lead, but with less agency in relation to the aforementioned states. 

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username