Confirmed previous forecast
-0.009397
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
Artificial Intelligence,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
Yes
69%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Can be extremely difficult to identify AI and not necessarily beneficial/worth the cost. (many twitter users are bots, does it matter?)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Regulations could force companies to do so in fake news scenarios, etc.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lee directly addressed and denied this possibility
In the many decades of MSR's existence, few companies have pulled out from China even through political turmoil such as today's climate
LinkedIn cited fierce competition; MSR does not face the same level of competition
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Rising political tension could lead to higher tensions between US/China and potentially the vulnerable Taiwan. Unlikely that Microsoft would want to keep their division in China.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-5%)
Yes
Putin has historically rigged the elections in his favor. While the Russian public may not be happy with how the war in Ukraine is occurring, the war itself is at a standstill. Unless major breakthroughs occur, no major change will happen. I'm uncertain how Navalny's death will affect the situation but I am assuming that his death will only bolster Putin, rather than rally the Russian people.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
Putin has historically rigged the elections in his favor. While the Russian public may not be happy with how the war in Ukraine is occurring, the war itself is at a standstill. Unless major breakthroughs occur, no major change will happen. I'm uncertain how Navalny's death will affect the situation but I am assuming that his death will only bolster Putin, rather than rally the Russian people.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Facebook is noticably recieving a massive influx in ai spammy type posts. Also, misinformation may be more pronounced.
Why might you be wrong?
AI generated posts still give traction and content to meta. Profit!