RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:12PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	5%	6%	-1%	-6%
More than or equal to 28%	95%	92%	+3%	+5%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	35%	33%	+2%	-3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	60%	64%	-4%	+3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	5%	3%	+2%	-1%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:14PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	15%	+5%	-45%
No	80%	85%	-5%	+45%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	Oct 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2025	Jan 13, 2025	22%	+8%	-9%
No	70%	Oct 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2025	Jan 13, 2025	78%	-8%	+9%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	11%	-6%	-6%
No	95%	89%	+6%	+6%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:16PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025	Nov 13, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025	Nov 13, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:26PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	Oct 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025	Nov 13, 2024	51%	+4%	-3%
No	45%	Oct 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025	Nov 13, 2024	49%	-4%	+3%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:40PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	39%	-9%	+0%
No	70%	61%	+9%	+0%

JJMLP

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