Forecasted Questions
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 8% | -4% | +1% |
| No | 96% | Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 92% | +4% | -1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:12PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:12PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 97% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 03, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 32% | -7% | -1% |
| No | 75% | 68% | +7% | +1% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 03, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 25% | +10% | -1% |
| No | 65% | 75% | -10% | +1% |