137th
Accuracy Rank

JJMLP

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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 Feb 2, 2025 0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 Feb 2, 2025 12%
No 96% Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025 Feb 2, 2025 88%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:12PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 95% 97%
No 5% 3%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?​

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 27%
No 75% 73%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 35% 25%
No 65% 75%
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