Forecasted Questions
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | 0% |
| No | 99% | 100% | -1% | 0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 96% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:57PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 03:57PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 22% | 22% | +0% | -3% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 78% | 77% | +1% | +3% |