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Power Forecaster - Aug 2024

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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	10%	7%	+3%	+0%
Armenia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Georgia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	8%	-2%	+1%
No	94%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	92%	+2%	-1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	25%	+0%	-2%
No	75%	75%	+0%	+2%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	10%	4%	+6%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	46%	39%	+7%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	44%	56%	-12%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	10%	5%	+5%	-1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	6%	+0%	-2%
No	94%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	94%	+0%	+2%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Oman	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%