Forecasted Questions
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 19, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 34% | -19% | +19% |
| No | 85% | 66% | +19% | -19% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 19, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 25% | 24% | +1% | -4% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 39% | -9% | -2% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 19, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -3% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +3% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:07PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:07PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:07PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:07PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 4% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 95% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Feb 2, 2025 | 96% | -1% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 5% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 92% | 95% | -3% | +0% |