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Forecasted Questions
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Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 06:31AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 65% Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 86%
No 35% Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 14%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 06:32AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 75% Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 87%
No 25% Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 Oct 25, 2024 13%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:49PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:49PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:49PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 3%
No 95% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 97%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 8% 5%
No 92% 95%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 8% 6%
No 92% 94%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%
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